Where Did All the Warming Go? | Cornwall Alliance

If you’ve followed debates about global warming much over the last 20 years, you’re aware that from about 1997 through 2015 there was little or no upward trend in global average surface air temperature. This, of course, contradicted predictions from sources diverse as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore. 

During the latter part of that period, many alarmists made the excuse that the missing heat was “hiding in the oceans.” That, of course, really was no excuse, because the predictions had been for atmospheric warming, not ocean warming. So, they were still wrong. Nonetheless, they clung to the excuse. 

What wasn’t clear at the time was just how much heat was “hiding in the oceans.”

Now we have a reasonably good idea. From 2004–2020, the average global ocean temperature from the surface down to 1,900 meters (6,234 feet) appears to have risen by about 0.05°C (0.09°F). That’s less than the margin of error. It’s also irrelevant to any marine ecosystem. 

We’ve also learned that not all oceans are warming. The circum-equator (30N–30S) and circum-Antarctic (55–65S) have warmed, by about 0.02°C and 0.04°C respectively, but the circum-Arctic (55–65N) have cooled, by about 0.15°C.  

Not only that but also, a good bit of the increased ocean heat content apparently didn’t come from the atmosphere but from the bottom of the oceans upward. This is important because if increased ocean heat were coming from the atmosphere, shallower water would be warming faster than deeper water. The opposite is true. 

This, as Ole Humlum says in The State of the Climate 2021, shows 

that average temperatures in the upper 1900m of the oceans are not only influenced by conditions playing out at or near the ocean surface, but also by processes operating at depths greater than 1900m. Part of the present ocean warming, therefore, appears to be due to circulation features operating at great depths, and not directly related to processes operating at or near the surface. 

And that, my friends, implies that the “hiding in the oceans” excuse remains a failure. It remains the case that computer climate models predict about 2 to 4 times as much lower atmospheric warming as we actually observe. They, therefore, provide no rational basis for predictions of future temperature or for any policy predicated on such predictions. 

 

Ole Humlum’s The State of the Climate 2021 is an excellent source correcting many claims of the climate-alarmist movement. It’s so good that I want you to have a FREE copy as Cornwall Alliance’s way of saying “Thank you!” when you make a donation of literally any size and request it. 

To request your copy, mention “Promo 22-05” or “State of the Climate” when you make your 100% tax-deductible donation. You can donate online, by mailing your check to Cornwall Alliance, 875 W. Poplar Ave. Suite 23-284, Collierville, TN, 38017, or by calling us at 423-500-3009. 

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